IEM Beijing 2026 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
BIG#24 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nemiga#46 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientBIG pick
69%27%
BIG · 9 mapsedge BIG +42%Nemiga · 7 maps
Dust2BIG ban
50%43%
BIG · 4 mapsedge BIG +7%Nemiga · 10 maps
MirageNemiga ban
38%50%
BIG · 9 mapsedge Nemiga +12%Nemiga · 2 maps
InfernoNemiga ban
57%50%
BIG · 10 mapsedge BIG +7%Nemiga · 0 maps
NukeBIG ban
50%63%
BIG · 4 mapsedge Nemiga +13%Nemiga · 4 maps
AnubisNemiga pick
60%67%
BIG · 1 mapedge Nemiga +7%Nemiga · 5 maps
Cachepossible decider
67%60%
BIG · 5 mapsedge BIG +7%Nemiga · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBIG remove Nuke
2. BanNemiga remove Inferno
3. PickBIG take Ancient
4. PickNemiga take Anubis
5. BanNemiga remove Mirage
6. BanBIG remove Dust2
DeciderCache (67% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:11
BIG 35%Nemiga 65%
The model gave 65% on Nemiga — the map was taken by BIG.
Ancientprediction missed13:16
BIG 87%Nemiga 13%
The model gave 87% on BIG — the map was taken by Nemiga.
Mirageprediction correct11:13
BIG 38%Nemiga 62%
The model gave 62% on Nemiga — the map was taken by Nemiga.
Model check result
Model favoriteBIG · 64%
Series resultNemiga 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3