CCT 2026 Europe Series 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Black Phoenix#57 in the world · win 2:1series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:1
benched gods#162 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientBlack Phoenix ban
50%42%
Black Phoenix · 0 mapsedge Black Phoenix +8%benched gods · 8 maps
Dust2Black Phoenix pick
50%44%
Black Phoenix · 2 mapsedge Black Phoenix +6%benched gods · 5 maps
Anubisbenched gods ban
40%44%
Black Phoenix · 1 mapnearly even -4%benched gods · 5 maps
DefaultBlack Phoenix ban
33%71%
Black Phoenix · 2 mapsedge benched gods +38%benched gods · 3 maps
Cachebenched gods pick
50%57%
Black Phoenix · 0 mapsedge benched gods +7%benched gods · 3 maps
Infernopossible decider
60%67%
Black Phoenix · 1 mapedge benched gods +7%benched gods · 2 maps
Miragebenched gods ban
40%40%
Black Phoenix · 1 mapnearly even +0%benched gods · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBlack Phoenix remove Ancient
2. Banbenched gods remove Mirage
3. PickBlack Phoenix take Dust2
4. Pickbenched gods take Cache
5. Banbenched gods remove Anubis
6. BanBlack Phoenix remove Default
DeciderInferno (60% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct9:13
Black Phoenix 40%benched gods 60%
The model gave 60% on benched gods — the map was taken by benched gods.
Dust2prediction correct13:8
Black Phoenix 58%benched gods 42%
The model gave 58% on Black Phoenix — the map was taken by Black Phoenix.
Infernoprediction missed13:11
Black Phoenix 43%benched gods 57%
The model gave 57% on benched gods — the map was taken by Black Phoenix.
Model check result
Model favoritebenched gods · 55%
Series resultBlack Phoenix 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3