Exort Fiesta Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Black Phoenix#57 in the world · win 2:1series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:1
benched gods#162 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Black Phoenix pick
54%45%
Black Phoenix · 37 mapsedge Black Phoenix +9%benched gods · 7 maps
Miragebenched gods ban
44%36%
Black Phoenix · 21 mapedge Black Phoenix +8%benched gods · 7 maps
AnubisBlack Phoenix ban
25%43%
Black Phoenix · 16 mapsedge benched gods +18%benched gods · 10 maps
Cachebenched gods pick
63%63%
Black Phoenix · 12 mapsnearly even +0%benched gods · 12 maps
Nukebenched gods ban
55%50%
Black Phoenix · 18 mapsedge Black Phoenix +5%benched gods · 0 maps
Infernopossible decider
61%57%
Black Phoenix · 14 mapsnearly even +4%benched gods · 3 maps
AncientBlack Phoenix ban
40%50%
Black Phoenix · 1 mapedge benched gods +10%benched gods · 12 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBlack Phoenix remove Ancient
2. Banbenched gods remove Nuke
3. PickBlack Phoenix take Dust2
4. Pickbenched gods take Cache
5. Banbenched gods remove Mirage
6. BanBlack Phoenix remove Anubis
DeciderInferno (61% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct12:16
Black Phoenix 47%benched gods 53%
The model gave 53% on benched gods — the map was taken by benched gods.
Dust2prediction correct13:2
Black Phoenix 61%benched gods 39%
The model gave 61% on Black Phoenix — the map was taken by Black Phoenix.
Mirageprediction correct13:6
Black Phoenix 58%benched gods 42%
The model gave 58% on Black Phoenix — the map was taken by Black Phoenix.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlack Phoenix · 70%
Series resultBlack Phoenix 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3