CCT 2026 Europe Series 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Black Phoenix#57 in the world · win 2:0series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Entropy#159 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageEntropy ban
43%48%
Black Phoenix · 3 mapsedge Entropy +5%Entropy · 23 maps
Dust2Entropy ban
60%27%
Black Phoenix · 6 mapsedge Black Phoenix +33%Entropy · 11 maps
AncientBlack Phoenix ban
50%53%
Black Phoenix · 0 mapsnearly even -3%Entropy · 15 maps
AnubisBlack Phoenix ban
33%53%
Black Phoenix · 2 mapsedge Entropy +20%Entropy · 11 maps
CacheEntropy pick
50%53%
Black Phoenix · 2 mapsnearly even -3%Entropy · 11 maps
InfernoBlack Phoenix pick
57%44%
Black Phoenix · 3 mapsedge Black Phoenix +13%Entropy · 5 maps
Defaultpossible decider
33%56%
Black Phoenix · 2 mapsedge Entropy +23%Entropy · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBlack Phoenix remove Ancient
2. BanEntropy remove Dust2
3. PickBlack Phoenix take Inferno
4. PickEntropy take Cache
5. BanEntropy remove Mirage
6. BanBlack Phoenix remove Anubis
DeciderDefault (33% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:9
Black Phoenix 42%Entropy 58%
The model gave 58% on Entropy — the map was taken by Black Phoenix.
Nukeprediction correct13:10
Black Phoenix 53%Entropy 47%
The model gave 53% on Black Phoenix — the map was taken by Black Phoenix.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntropy · 52%
Series resultBlack Phoenix 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2