CCT 2026 Europe Series 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Black Phoenix#57 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Black Phoenix pick
67%52%
Black Phoenix · 14 mapsedge Black Phoenix +15%ex-RUSTEC · 19 maps
Nukepossible decider
40%42%
Black Phoenix · 6 mapsnearly even -2%ex-RUSTEC · 15 maps
AnubisBlack Phoenix ban
25%58%
Black Phoenix · 4 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +33%ex-RUSTEC · 15 maps
MirageBlack Phoenix ban
50%67%
Black Phoenix · 10 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +17%ex-RUSTEC · 8 maps
Cacheex-RUSTEC ban
60%42%
Black Phoenix · 6 mapsedge Black Phoenix +18%ex-RUSTEC · 8 maps
Infernoex-RUSTEC ban
67%45%
Black Phoenix · 5 mapsedge Black Phoenix +22%ex-RUSTEC · 7 maps
Defaultex-RUSTEC pick
43%71%
Black Phoenix · 3 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +28%ex-RUSTEC · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBlack Phoenix remove Anubis
2. Banex-RUSTEC remove Inferno
3. PickBlack Phoenix take Dust2
4. Pickex-RUSTEC take Default
5. Banex-RUSTEC remove Cache
6. BanBlack Phoenix remove Mirage
DeciderNuke (40% / 42%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct8:13
Black Phoenix 18%ex-RUSTEC 82%
The model gave 82% on ex-RUSTEC — the map was taken by ex-RUSTEC.
Infernoprediction missed14:16
Black Phoenix 73%ex-RUSTEC 27%
The model gave 73% on Black Phoenix — the map was taken by ex-RUSTEC.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlack Phoenix · 61%
Series resultex-RUSTEC 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2