CCT 2026 Europe Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Black Phoenix#80 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Black Phoenix pick
57%61%
Black Phoenix · 26 mapsnearly even -4%ex-Zero Tenacity · 14 maps
NukeBlack Phoenix ban
53%65%
Black Phoenix · 15 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +12%ex-Zero Tenacity · 13 maps
Cacheex-Zero Tenacity pick
64%76%
Black Phoenix · 10 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +12%ex-Zero Tenacity · 13 maps
Mirageex-Zero Tenacity ban
45%64%
Black Phoenix · 16 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +19%ex-Zero Tenacity · 7 maps
Infernoex-Zero Tenacity ban
67%69%
Black Phoenix · 11 mapsnearly even -2%ex-Zero Tenacity · 9 maps
AnubisBlack Phoenix ban
14%50%
Black Phoenix · 10 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +36%ex-Zero Tenacity · 6 maps
Defaultpossible decider
50%56%
Black Phoenix · 4 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +6%ex-Zero Tenacity · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBlack Phoenix remove Anubis
2. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Mirage
3. PickBlack Phoenix take Dust2
4. Pickex-Zero Tenacity take Cache
5. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Inferno
6. BanBlack Phoenix remove Nuke
DeciderDefault (50% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct8:13
Black Phoenix 13%ex-Zero Tenacity 87%
The model gave 87% on ex-Zero Tenacity — the map was taken by ex-Zero Tenacity.
Dust2prediction correct7:13
Black Phoenix 48%ex-Zero Tenacity 52%
The model gave 52% on ex-Zero Tenacity — the map was taken by ex-Zero Tenacity.
Model check result
Model favoriteex-Zero Tenacity · 62%
Series resultex-Zero Tenacity 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2