Exort Fiesta Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Black Phoenix#57 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Black Phoenix pick
57%62%
Black Phoenix · 40 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +5%ex-Zero Tenacity · 17 maps
Cacheex-Zero Tenacity pick
53%73%
Black Phoenix · 15 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +20%ex-Zero Tenacity · 22 maps
NukeBlack Phoenix ban
52%70%
Black Phoenix · 19 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +18%ex-Zero Tenacity · 16 maps
Mirageex-Zero Tenacity ban
44%54%
Black Phoenix · 23 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +10%ex-Zero Tenacity · 9 maps
Infernoex-Zero Tenacity ban
61%59%
Black Phoenix · 14 mapsnearly even +2%ex-Zero Tenacity · 13 maps
AnubisBlack Phoenix ban
25%58%
Black Phoenix · 16 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +33%ex-Zero Tenacity · 8 maps
Defaultpossible decider
56%54%
Black Phoenix · 5 mapsnearly even +2%ex-Zero Tenacity · 9 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBlack Phoenix remove Anubis
2. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Mirage
3. PickBlack Phoenix take Dust2
4. Pickex-Zero Tenacity take Cache
5. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Inferno
6. BanBlack Phoenix remove Nuke
DeciderDefault (56% / 54%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct8:13
Black Phoenix 17%ex-Zero Tenacity 83%
The model gave 83% on ex-Zero Tenacity — the map was taken by ex-Zero Tenacity.
Dust2prediction correct10:13
Black Phoenix 48%ex-Zero Tenacity 52%
The model gave 52% on ex-Zero Tenacity — the map was taken by ex-Zero Tenacity.
Model check result
Model favoriteex-Zero Tenacity · 64%
Series resultex-Zero Tenacity 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2