CCT 2026 Europe Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Black Phoenix#80 in the world · win 2:0series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HAVU#116 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2HAVU ban
52%30%
Black Phoenix · 29 mapsedge Black Phoenix +22%HAVU · 6 maps
NukeHAVU pick
53%69%
Black Phoenix · 15 mapsedge HAVU +16%HAVU · 12 maps
MirageBlack Phoenix ban
43%55%
Black Phoenix · 17 mapsedge HAVU +12%HAVU · 7 maps
CacheBlack Phoenix pick
64%33%
Black Phoenix · 10 mapsedge Black Phoenix +31%HAVU · 5 maps
InfernoHAVU ban
67%57%
Black Phoenix · 11 mapsedge Black Phoenix +10%HAVU · 3 maps
AnubisBlack Phoenix ban
13%40%
Black Phoenix · 12 mapsedge HAVU +27%HAVU · 1 map
Defaultpossible decider
50%60%
Black Phoenix · 4 mapsedge HAVU +10%HAVU · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBlack Phoenix remove Anubis
2. BanHAVU remove Dust2
3. PickBlack Phoenix take Cache
4. PickHAVU take Nuke
5. BanHAVU remove Inferno
6. BanBlack Phoenix remove Mirage
DeciderDefault (50% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed16:13
Black Phoenix 36%HAVU 64%
The model gave 64% on HAVU — the map was taken by Black Phoenix.
Defaultprediction missed1:0
Black Phoenix 43%HAVU 57%
The model gave 57% on HAVU — the map was taken by Black Phoenix.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlack Phoenix · 66%
Series resultBlack Phoenix 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2