NODWIN Clutch Series 11 · BO3
result vs prediction
Black Phoenix#80 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:2
INFINITE#56 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Black Phoenix pick
55%45%
Black Phoenix · 27 mapsedge Black Phoenix +10%INFINITE · 7 maps
MirageINFINITE pick
45%50%
Black Phoenix · 16 mapsedge INFINITE +5%INFINITE · 14 maps
NukeINFINITE ban
53%46%
Black Phoenix · 15 mapsedge Black Phoenix +7%INFINITE · 9 maps
InfernoINFINITE ban
67%50%
Black Phoenix · 11 mapsedge Black Phoenix +17%INFINITE · 4 maps
AnubisBlack Phoenix ban
13%40%
Black Phoenix · 11 mapsedge INFINITE +27%INFINITE · 1 map
Cachepossible decider
64%50%
Black Phoenix · 10 mapsedge Black Phoenix +14%INFINITE · 2 maps
DefaultBlack Phoenix ban
50%75%
Black Phoenix · 4 mapsedge INFINITE +25%INFINITE · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBlack Phoenix remove Anubis
2. BanINFINITE remove Nuke
3. PickBlack Phoenix take Dust2
4. PickINFINITE take Mirage
5. BanINFINITE remove Inferno
6. BanBlack Phoenix remove Default
DeciderCache (64% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed11:13
Black Phoenix 62%INFINITE 38%
The model gave 62% on Black Phoenix — the map was taken by INFINITE.
Mirageprediction correct10:13
Black Phoenix 42%INFINITE 58%
The model gave 58% on INFINITE — the map was taken by INFINITE.
Model check result
Model favoriteINFINITE · 56%
Series resultINFINITE 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2