CCT 2026 Europe Series 10 · BO3
result vs prediction
Black Phoenix#57 in the world · win 2:1series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Leo#89 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Black Phoenix pick
62%41%
Black Phoenix · 56 mapsedge Black Phoenix +21%Leo · 28 maps
NukeLeo pick
52%88%
Black Phoenix · 25 mapsedge Leo +36%Leo · 28 maps
MirageLeo ban
48%38%
Black Phoenix · 27 mapsedge Black Phoenix +10%Leo · 12 maps
Cachepossible decider
46%55%
Black Phoenix · 20 mapsedge Leo +9%Leo · 16 maps
AnubisBlack Phoenix ban
31%36%
Black Phoenix · 22 mapsedge Leo +5%Leo · 10 maps
AncientBlack Phoenix ban
33%42%
Black Phoenix · 2 mapsedge Leo +9%Leo · 20 maps
InfernoLeo ban
65%50%
Black Phoenix · 19 mapsedge Black Phoenix +15%Leo · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBlack Phoenix remove Ancient
2. BanLeo remove Inferno
3. PickBlack Phoenix take Dust2
4. PickLeo take Nuke
5. BanLeo remove Mirage
6. BanBlack Phoenix remove Anubis
DeciderCache (46% / 55%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:6
Black Phoenix 73%Leo 27%
The model gave 73% on Black Phoenix — the map was taken by Black Phoenix.
Nukeprediction correct7:13
Black Phoenix 12%Leo 88%
The model gave 88% on Leo — the map was taken by Leo.
Anubisprediction missed13:4
Black Phoenix 44%Leo 56%
The model gave 56% on Leo — the map was taken by Black Phoenix.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlack Phoenix · 66%
Series resultBlack Phoenix 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3