Thunderpick World Championship 2026 Europe Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Black Phoenix#57 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Misa#115 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Black Phoenix pick
57%55%
Black Phoenix · 3 mapsnearly even +2%Misa · 25 maps
Miragepossible decider
40%43%
Black Phoenix · 1 mapnearly even -3%Misa · 17 maps
AnubisBlack Phoenix ban
40%47%
Black Phoenix · 1 mapedge Misa +7%Misa · 11 maps
NukeMisa ban
50%50%
Black Phoenix · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Misa · 12 maps
InfernoMisa ban
67%50%
Black Phoenix · 2 mapsedge Black Phoenix +17%Misa · 8 maps
CacheBlack Phoenix ban
40%44%
Black Phoenix · 1 mapnearly even -4%Misa · 5 maps
DefaultMisa pick
33%50%
Black Phoenix · 2 mapsedge Misa +17%Misa · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBlack Phoenix remove Anubis
2. BanMisa remove Nuke
3. PickBlack Phoenix take Dust2
4. PickMisa take Default
5. BanMisa remove Inferno
6. BanBlack Phoenix remove Cache
DeciderMirage (40% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:7
Black Phoenix 55%Misa 45%
The model gave 55% on Black Phoenix — the map was taken by Black Phoenix.
Anubisprediction correct8:13
Black Phoenix 40%Misa 60%
The model gave 60% on Misa — the map was taken by Misa.
Infernoprediction missed6:13
Black Phoenix 67%Misa 33%
The model gave 67% on Black Phoenix — the map was taken by Misa.
Model check result
Model favoriteMisa · 52%
Series resultMisa 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3