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GLuck Yungstar 2026 Series 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Black Phoenix#58 in the world · loss 1:2
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:2
QUAZAR#99 in the world · win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2QUAZAR ban
65%50%
Black Phoenix · 65 mapsedge Black Phoenix +15%QUAZAR · 14 maps
MirageBlack Phoenix ban
52%61%
Black Phoenix · 29 mapsedge QUAZAR +9%QUAZAR · 14 maps
CacheQUAZAR pick
48%67%
Black Phoenix · 23 mapsedge QUAZAR +19%QUAZAR · 14 maps
Nukepossible decider
50%64%
Black Phoenix · 26 mapsedge QUAZAR +14%QUAZAR · 10 maps
AnubisBlack Phoenix ban
42%58%
Black Phoenix · 27 mapsedge QUAZAR +16%QUAZAR · 8 maps
InfernoBlack Phoenix pick
68%55%
Black Phoenix · 21 mapedge Black Phoenix +13%QUAZAR · 7 maps
DefaultQUAZAR ban
50%50%
Black Phoenix · 10 mapsnearly even +0%QUAZAR · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBlack Phoenix remove Anubis
2. BanQUAZAR remove Dust2
3. PickBlack Phoenix take Inferno
4. PickQUAZAR take Cache
5. BanQUAZAR remove Default
6. BanBlack Phoenix remove Mirage
DeciderNuke (50% / 64%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct19:15
Black Phoenix 68%QUAZAR 32%
The model gave 68% on Black Phoenix — the map was taken by Black Phoenix.
Cacheprediction correct12:16
Black Phoenix 29%QUAZAR 71%
The model gave 71% on QUAZAR — the map was taken by QUAZAR.
Mirageprediction correct7:13
Black Phoenix 40%QUAZAR 60%
The model gave 60% on QUAZAR — the map was taken by QUAZAR.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlack Phoenix · 54%
Series resultQUAZAR 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3