CCT 2026 Europe Series 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Black Phoenix#57 in the world · win 2:1series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Rune Eaters#114 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageRune Eaters pick
50%50%
Black Phoenix · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Rune Eaters · 18 maps
Dust2Black Phoenix ban
50%57%
Black Phoenix · 0 mapsedge Rune Eaters +7%Rune Eaters · 17 maps
AncientBlack Phoenix ban
50%47%
Black Phoenix · 0 mapsnearly even +3%Rune Eaters · 15 maps
InfernoRune Eaters ban
50%46%
Black Phoenix · 0 mapsnearly even +4%Rune Eaters · 9 maps
NukeBlack Phoenix pick
50%33%
Black Phoenix · 0 mapsedge Black Phoenix +17%Rune Eaters · 5 maps
Defaultpossible decider
50%43%
Black Phoenix · 0 mapsedge Black Phoenix +7%Rune Eaters · 3 maps
OverpassRune Eaters ban
50%33%
Black Phoenix · 0 mapsedge Black Phoenix +17%Rune Eaters · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBlack Phoenix remove Dust2
2. BanRune Eaters remove Overpass
3. PickBlack Phoenix take Nuke
4. PickRune Eaters take Mirage
5. BanRune Eaters remove Inferno
6. BanBlack Phoenix remove Ancient
DeciderDefault (50% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:7
Black Phoenix 46%Rune Eaters 54%
The model gave 54% on Rune Eaters — the map was taken by Black Phoenix.
Mirageprediction correct6:13
Black Phoenix 47%Rune Eaters 53%
The model gave 53% on Rune Eaters — the map was taken by Rune Eaters.
Infernoprediction correct13:7
Black Phoenix 54%Rune Eaters 46%
The model gave 54% on Black Phoenix — the map was taken by Black Phoenix.
Model check result
Model favoriteRune Eaters · 60%
Series resultBlack Phoenix 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3