GLuck Moscow Cyber Games 2026 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Black Phoenix#57 in the world · win 2:0series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Rune Eaters#114 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Black Phoenix pick
57%52%
Black Phoenix · 24 mapsedge Black Phoenix +5%Rune Eaters · 23 maps
MirageRune Eaters pick
42%64%
Black Phoenix · 15 mapsedge Rune Eaters +22%Rune Eaters · 18 maps
Infernopossible decider
62%50%
Black Phoenix · 9 mapsedge Black Phoenix +12%Rune Eaters · 10 maps
NukeRune Eaters ban
50%44%
Black Phoenix · 12 mapsedge Black Phoenix +6%Rune Eaters · 5 maps
AncientBlack Phoenix ban
50%47%
Black Phoenix · 0 mapsnearly even +3%Rune Eaters · 15 maps
AnubisBlack Phoenix ban
15%67%
Black Phoenix · 9 mapsedge Rune Eaters +52%Rune Eaters · 2 maps
CacheRune Eaters ban
62%60%
Black Phoenix · 9 mapsnearly even +2%Rune Eaters · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBlack Phoenix remove Anubis
2. BanRune Eaters remove Nuke
3. PickBlack Phoenix take Dust2
4. PickRune Eaters take Mirage
5. BanRune Eaters remove Cache
6. BanBlack Phoenix remove Ancient
DeciderInferno (62% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:7
Black Phoenix 58%Rune Eaters 42%
The model gave 58% on Black Phoenix — the map was taken by Black Phoenix.
Mirageprediction missed13:9
Black Phoenix 27%Rune Eaters 73%
The model gave 73% on Rune Eaters — the map was taken by Black Phoenix.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlack Phoenix · 60%
Series resultBlack Phoenix 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2