CCT 2026 Europe Series 11 · BO3
result vs prediction
Black Phoenix#58 in the world · win 2:1series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Black Phoenix pick
66%63%
Black Phoenix · 66 mapsnearly even +3%Saint Sinners · 12 maps
MirageSaint Sinners pick
50%53%
Black Phoenix · 30 mapsnearly even -3%Saint Sinners · 11 maps
NukeBlack Phoenix ban
50%33%
Black Phoenix · 26 mapsedge Black Phoenix +17%Saint Sinners · 8 maps
AnubisBlack Phoenix ban
42%56%
Black Phoenix · 27 mapsedge Saint Sinners +14%Saint Sinners · 5 maps
CacheSaint Sinners ban
46%40%
Black Phoenix · 24 mapsedge Black Phoenix +6%Saint Sinners · 1 map
InfernoSaint Sinners ban
68%33%
Black Phoenix · 21 mapedge Black Phoenix +35%Saint Sinners · 2 maps
Defaultpossible decider
50%46%
Black Phoenix · 10 mapsnearly even +4%Saint Sinners · 9 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBlack Phoenix remove Anubis
2. BanSaint Sinners remove Cache
3. PickBlack Phoenix take Dust2
4. PickSaint Sinners take Mirage
5. BanSaint Sinners remove Inferno
6. BanBlack Phoenix remove Nuke
DeciderDefault (50% / 46%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:6
Black Phoenix 44%Saint Sinners 56%
The model gave 56% on Saint Sinners — the map was taken by Black Phoenix.
Infernoprediction missed5:13
Black Phoenix 83%Saint Sinners 17%
The model gave 83% on Black Phoenix — the map was taken by Saint Sinners.
Dust2prediction correct13:6
Black Phoenix 53%Saint Sinners 47%
The model gave 53% on Black Phoenix — the map was taken by Black Phoenix.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlack Phoenix · 69%
Series resultBlack Phoenix 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3