GLuck Moscow Cyber Games 2026 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Black Phoenix#80 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:2
SPARTA#89 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Black Phoenix pick
59%68%
Black Phoenix · 25 mapsedge SPARTA +9%SPARTA · 36 maps
MirageSPARTA pick
45%56%
Black Phoenix · 16 mapsedge SPARTA +11%SPARTA · 23 maps
NukeSPARTA ban
53%50%
Black Phoenix · 13 mapsnearly even +3%SPARTA · 18 maps
AncientBlack Phoenix ban
50%44%
Black Phoenix · 0 mapsedge Black Phoenix +6%SPARTA · 21 map
Cachepossible decider
64%50%
Black Phoenix · 10 mapsedge Black Phoenix +14%SPARTA · 10 maps
InfernoBlack Phoenix ban
62%60%
Black Phoenix · 9 mapsnearly even +2%SPARTA · 11 maps
AnubisSPARTA ban
14%43%
Black Phoenix · 10 mapsedge SPARTA +29%SPARTA · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBlack Phoenix remove Ancient
2. BanSPARTA remove Anubis
3. PickBlack Phoenix take Dust2
4. PickSPARTA take Mirage
5. BanSPARTA remove Nuke
6. BanBlack Phoenix remove Inferno
DeciderCache (64% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct8:13
Black Phoenix 43%SPARTA 57%
The model gave 57% on SPARTA — the map was taken by SPARTA.
Infernoprediction missed13:4
Black Phoenix 49%SPARTA 51%
The model gave 51% on SPARTA — the map was taken by Black Phoenix.
Nukeprediction missed6:13
Black Phoenix 53%SPARTA 47%
The model gave 53% on Black Phoenix — the map was taken by SPARTA.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlack Phoenix · 51%
Series resultSPARTA 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3