CIS Esports League CyberClash Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Black Phoenix#58 in the world · win 1:0series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Walczaki#151 in the world · loss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Walczaki ban
64%50%
Black Phoenix · 60 mapsedge Black Phoenix +14%Walczaki · 0 maps
AnubisBlack Phoenix ban
38%58%
Black Phoenix · 25 mapsedge Walczaki +20%Walczaki · 8 maps
NukeWalczaki pick
50%36%
Black Phoenix · 26 mapsedge Black Phoenix +14%Walczaki · 7 maps
MirageWalczaki ban
50%43%
Black Phoenix · 28 mapsedge Black Phoenix +7%Walczaki · 3 maps
InfernoBlack Phoenix pick
67%31%
Black Phoenix · 20 mapsedge Black Phoenix +36%Walczaki · 9 maps
CacheBlack Phoenix ban
48%36%
Black Phoenix · 21 mapedge Black Phoenix +12%Walczaki · 7 maps
Defaultpossible decider
50%17%
Black Phoenix · 8 mapsedge Black Phoenix +33%Walczaki · 8 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBlack Phoenix remove Anubis
2. BanWalczaki remove Dust2
3. PickBlack Phoenix take Inferno
4. PickWalczaki take Nuke
5. BanWalczaki remove Mirage
6. BanBlack Phoenix remove Cache
DeciderDefault (50% / 17%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
Black Phoenix 83%Walczaki 17%
The model gave 83% on Black Phoenix — the map was taken by Black Phoenix.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlack Phoenix · 78%
Series resultBlack Phoenix 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1