ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 3 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BORING PLAYERS#336 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2bLight blue ban
33%40%
bLight blue · 2 mapsedge BORING PLAYERS +7%BORING PLAYERS · 1 map
MirageBORING PLAYERS ban
43%50%
bLight blue · 3 mapsedge BORING PLAYERS +7%BORING PLAYERS · 0 maps
AncientBORING PLAYERS pick
50%50%
bLight blue · 2 mapsnearly even +0%BORING PLAYERS · 0 maps
InfernobLight blue ban
40%60%
bLight blue · 1 mapedge BORING PLAYERS +20%BORING PLAYERS · 1 map
CacheBORING PLAYERS ban
40%50%
bLight blue · 1 mapedge BORING PLAYERS +10%BORING PLAYERS · 0 maps
NukebLight blue pick
50%40%
bLight blue · 0 mapsedge bLight blue +10%BORING PLAYERS · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanbLight blue remove Inferno
2. BanBORING PLAYERS remove Mirage
3. PickbLight blue take Nuke
4. PickBORING PLAYERS take Ancient
5. BanBORING PLAYERS remove Cache
6. BanbLight blue remove Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct11:13
bLight blue 46%BORING PLAYERS 54%
The model gave 54% on BORING PLAYERS — the map was taken by BORING PLAYERS.
Ancientprediction correct11:13
bLight blue 47%BORING PLAYERS 53%
The model gave 53% on BORING PLAYERS — the map was taken by BORING PLAYERS.
Model check result
Model favoriteBORING PLAYERS · 52%
Series resultBORING PLAYERS 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2