Thunderpick World Championship 2026 North America · BO3
result vs prediction
BOSSloss 0:1series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Aether#215 in the world · win 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientAether pick
50%63%
BOSS · 0 mapsedge Aether +13%Aether · 4 maps
DefaultBOSS ban
33%40%
BOSS · 2 mapsedge Aether +7%Aether · 1 map
Dust2Aether ban
50%67%
BOSS · 0 mapsedge Aether +17%Aether · 2 maps
AnubisAether ban
50%40%
BOSS · 0 mapsedge BOSS +10%Aether · 1 map
MirageBOSS pick
50%60%
BOSS · 0 mapsedge Aether +10%Aether · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBOSS remove Default
2. BanAether remove Anubis
3. PickBOSS take Mirage
4. PickAether take Ancient
5. BanAether remove Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct0:1
BOSS 43%Aether 57%
The model gave 57% on Aether — the map was taken by Aether.
Model check result
Model favoriteAether · 54%
Series resultAether 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1