ESL Challenger League Season 51 North America Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
BOSSloss 0:1series probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Fisher College#85 in the world · win 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoFisher College ban
50%43%
BOSS · 0 mapsedge BOSS +7%Fisher College · 3 maps
AncientFisher College pick
50%50%
BOSS · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Fisher College · 2 maps
NukeFisher College ban
50%33%
BOSS · 0 mapsedge BOSS +17%Fisher College · 2 maps
DefaultBOSS ban
40%50%
BOSS · 1 mapedge Fisher College +10%Fisher College · 0 maps
MirageBOSS pick
50%40%
BOSS · 0 mapsedge BOSS +10%Fisher College · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBOSS remove Default
2. BanFisher College remove Nuke
3. PickBOSS take Mirage
4. PickFisher College take Ancient
5. BanFisher College remove Inferno
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct0:1
BOSS 40%Fisher College 60%
The model gave 60% on Fisher College — the map was taken by Fisher College.
Model check result
Model favoriteFisher College · 81%
Series resultFisher College 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1