ESL Challenger League Season 51 South America Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Bounty Hunters#109 in the world · win 2:0series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Keyd Stars#156 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Bounty Hunters pick
57%50%
Bounty Hunters · 3 mapsedge Bounty Hunters +7%Keyd Stars · 2 maps
AncientKeyd Stars ban
67%50%
Bounty Hunters · 2 mapsedge Bounty Hunters +17%Keyd Stars · 2 maps
MirageBounty Hunters ban
33%50%
Bounty Hunters · 2 mapsedge Keyd Stars +17%Keyd Stars · 2 maps
NukeKeyd Stars pick
60%60%
Bounty Hunters · 1 mapnearly even +0%Keyd Stars · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBounty Hunters remove Mirage
2. BanKeyd Stars remove Ancient
3. PickBounty Hunters take Dust2
4. PickKeyd Stars take Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct16:13
Bounty Hunters 54%Keyd Stars 46%
The model gave 54% on Bounty Hunters — the map was taken by Bounty Hunters.
Mirageprediction missed13:8
Bounty Hunters 36%Keyd Stars 64%
The model gave 64% on Keyd Stars — the map was taken by Bounty Hunters.
Model check result
Model favoriteBounty Hunters · 61%
Series resultBounty Hunters 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2