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ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Bounty Hunters#74 in the world · win 2:0
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MEIA NOITE#230 in the world · loss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageMEIA NOITE pick
38%50%
Bounty Hunters · 9 mapsedge MEIA NOITE +12%MEIA NOITE · 4 maps
NukeBounty Hunters pick
60%40%
Bounty Hunters · 11 mapsedge Bounty Hunters +20%MEIA NOITE · 1 map
Ancientpossible decider
36%29%
Bounty Hunters · 7 mapsedge Bounty Hunters +7%MEIA NOITE · 3 maps
Dust2Bounty Hunters ban
50%57%
Bounty Hunters · 6 mapsedge MEIA NOITE +7%MEIA NOITE · 3 maps
CacheMEIA NOITE ban
50%40%
Bounty Hunters · 6 mapsedge Bounty Hunters +10%MEIA NOITE · 1 map
AnubisMEIA NOITE ban
57%50%
Bounty Hunters · 3 mapsedge Bounty Hunters +7%MEIA NOITE · 0 maps
InfernoBounty Hunters ban
50%67%
Bounty Hunters · 0 mapsedge MEIA NOITE +17%MEIA NOITE · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBounty Hunters remove Inferno
2. BanMEIA NOITE remove Anubis
3. PickBounty Hunters take Nuke
4. PickMEIA NOITE take Mirage
5. BanMEIA NOITE remove Cache
6. BanBounty Hunters remove Dust2
DeciderAncient (36% / 29%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:6
Bounty Hunters 36%MEIA NOITE 64%
The model gave 64% on MEIA NOITE — the map was taken by Bounty Hunters.
Cacheprediction correct13:5
Bounty Hunters 63%MEIA NOITE 37%
The model gave 63% on Bounty Hunters — the map was taken by Bounty Hunters.
Model check result
Model favoriteBounty Hunters · 70%
Series resultBounty Hunters 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2