ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Bounty Hunters#74 in the world · win 2:0series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Procyon#119 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragepossible decider
48%67%
Bounty Hunters · 23 mapsedge Procyon +19%Procyon · 5 maps
AncientBounty Hunters ban
33%53%
Bounty Hunters · 14 mapsedge Procyon +20%Procyon · 13 maps
Dust2Procyon ban
47%35%
Bounty Hunters · 11 mapsedge Bounty Hunters +12%Procyon · 16 maps
NukeBounty Hunters pick
55%60%
Bounty Hunters · 18 mapsedge Procyon +5%Procyon · 6 maps
CacheProcyon ban
58%50%
Bounty Hunters · 22 mapsedge Bounty Hunters +8%Procyon · 0 maps
AnubisProcyon pick
58%67%
Bounty Hunters · 8 mapsedge Procyon +9%Procyon · 8 maps
InfernoBounty Hunters ban
50%63%
Bounty Hunters · 0 mapsedge Procyon +13%Procyon · 15 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBounty Hunters remove Inferno
2. BanProcyon remove Cache
3. PickBounty Hunters take Nuke
4. PickProcyon take Anubis
5. BanProcyon remove Dust2
6. BanBounty Hunters remove Ancient
DeciderMirage (48% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed13:9
Bounty Hunters 38%Procyon 62%
The model gave 62% on Procyon — the map was taken by Bounty Hunters.
Nukeprediction missed13:5
Bounty Hunters 47%Procyon 53%
The model gave 53% on Procyon — the map was taken by Bounty Hunters.
Model check result
Model favoriteBounty Hunters · 69%
Series resultBounty Hunters 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2