ESEA Advanced Season 57 North America · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Omen#216 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeBrahmas pick
50%50%
Brahmas · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Omen · 0 maps
OverpassBrahmas ban
40%60%
Brahmas · 1 mapedge Omen +20%Omen · 1 map
AnubisBrahmas ban
50%60%
Brahmas · 0 mapsedge Omen +10%Omen · 1 map
DefaultOmen ban
50%60%
Brahmas · 0 mapsedge Omen +10%Omen · 1 map
InfernoOmen pick
40%50%
Brahmas · 1 mapedge Omen +10%Omen · 0 maps
MirageOmen ban
60%50%
Brahmas · 1 mapedge Brahmas +10%Omen · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBrahmas remove Anubis
2. BanOmen remove Mirage
3. PickBrahmas take Nuke
4. PickOmen take Inferno
5. BanOmen remove Default
6. BanBrahmas remove Overpass
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:5
Brahmas 37%Omen 63%
The model gave 63% on Omen — the map was taken by Brahmas.
Mirageprediction correct13:10
Brahmas 63%Omen 37%
The model gave 63% on Brahmas — the map was taken by Brahmas.
Model check result
Model favoriteOmen · 50%
Series resultBrahmas 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2