ESN Fall Showdown 2026 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Mirage1337 ban
60%40%
BRONUUD · 1 mapedge BRONUUD +20%1337 · 1 map
AncientBRONUUD pick
50%40%
BRONUUD · 0 mapsedge BRONUUD +10%1337 · 1 map
Anubis1337 pick
40%50%
BRONUUD · 1 mapedge 1337 +10%1337 · 0 maps
Cache1337 ban
40%50%
BRONUUD · 1 mapedge 1337 +10%1337 · 0 maps
NukeBRONUUD ban
50%60%
BRONUUD · 0 mapsedge 1337 +10%1337 · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBRONUUD remove Nuke
2. Ban1337 remove Mirage
3. PickBRONUUD take Ancient
4. Pick1337 take Anubis
5. Ban1337 remove Cache
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:8
BRONUUD 37%1337 63%
The model gave 63% on 1337 — the map was taken by BRONUUD.
Dust2prediction missed3:13
BRONUUD 53%1337 47%
The model gave 53% on BRONUUD — the map was taken by 1337.
Ancientprediction missed13:16
BRONUUD 60%1337 40%
The model gave 60% on BRONUUD — the map was taken by 1337.
Model check result
Model favoriteBRONUUD · 50%
Series result1337 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 3