Tipsport Open Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
BRUTE#74 in the world · win 2:1series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:1
INFURITY#115 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2BRUTE pick
59%50%
BRUTE · 18 mapsedge BRUTE +9%INFURITY · 0 maps
AnubisBRUTE ban
50%50%
BRUTE · 10 mapsnearly even +0%INFURITY · 2 maps
CacheINFURITY ban
46%50%
BRUTE · 9 mapsnearly even -4%INFURITY · 0 maps
MirageINFURITY ban
62%50%
BRUTE · 9 mapsedge BRUTE +12%INFURITY · 0 maps
NukeINFURITY pick
58%60%
BRUTE · 8 mapsnearly even -2%INFURITY · 1 map
AncientBRUTE ban
33%67%
BRUTE · 2 mapsedge INFURITY +34%INFURITY · 2 maps
Infernopossible decider
67%50%
BRUTE · 2 mapsedge BRUTE +17%INFURITY · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBRUTE remove Ancient
2. BanINFURITY remove Mirage
3. PickBRUTE take Dust2
4. PickINFURITY take Nuke
5. BanINFURITY remove Cache
6. BanBRUTE remove Anubis
DeciderInferno (67% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed10:13
BRUTE 64%INFURITY 36%
The model gave 64% on BRUTE — the map was taken by INFURITY.
Cacheprediction missed16:12
BRUTE 49%INFURITY 51%
The model gave 51% on INFURITY — the map was taken by BRUTE.
Nukeprediction missed13:10
BRUTE 48%INFURITY 52%
The model gave 52% on INFURITY — the map was taken by BRUTE.
Model check result
Model favoriteBRUTE · 74%
Series resultBRUTE 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 3