Tipsport Open Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
BRUTE#74 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 1:2
NAVI Junior#127 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2BRUTE pick
65%33%
BRUTE · 16 mapsedge BRUTE +32%NAVI Junior · 2 maps
NukeNAVI Junior ban
53%33%
BRUTE · 13 mapsedge BRUTE +20%NAVI Junior · 5 maps
MirageNAVI Junior pick
54%78%
BRUTE · 9 mapsedge NAVI Junior +24%NAVI Junior · 5 maps
InfernoNAVI Junior ban
64%29%
BRUTE · 7 mapsedge BRUTE +35%NAVI Junior · 3 maps
AnubisBRUTE ban
43%38%
BRUTE · 3 mapsedge BRUTE +5%NAVI Junior · 4 maps
CacheBRUTE ban
33%50%
BRUTE · 5 mapsedge NAVI Junior +17%NAVI Junior · 0 maps
Overpasspossible decider
63%50%
BRUTE · 4 mapsedge BRUTE +13%NAVI Junior · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBRUTE remove Anubis
2. BanNAVI Junior remove Inferno
3. PickBRUTE take Dust2
4. PickNAVI Junior take Mirage
5. BanNAVI Junior remove Nuke
6. BanBRUTE remove Cache
DeciderOverpass (63% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:4
BRUTE 23%NAVI Junior 77%
The model gave 77% on NAVI Junior — the map was taken by BRUTE.
Dust2prediction missed5:13
BRUTE 81%NAVI Junior 19%
The model gave 81% on BRUTE — the map was taken by NAVI Junior.
Anubisprediction missed6:13
BRUTE 56%NAVI Junior 44%
The model gave 56% on BRUTE — the map was taken by NAVI Junior.
Model check result
Model favoriteBRUTE · 75%
Series resultNAVI Junior 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 3