Esports Nations Cup 2026 East Europe Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Bulgaria#39 in the world · win 2:0series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Serbialoss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoBulgaria ban
50%40%
Bulgaria · 0 mapsedge Bulgaria +10%Serbia · 1 map
MirageSerbia ban
50%40%
Bulgaria · 0 mapsedge Bulgaria +10%Serbia · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBulgaria remove Inferno
2. BanSerbia remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:8
Bulgaria 47%Serbia 53%
The model gave 53% on Serbia — the map was taken by Bulgaria.
Mirageprediction correct13:9
Bulgaria 63%Serbia 37%
The model gave 63% on Bulgaria — the map was taken by Bulgaria.
Model check result
Model favoriteBulgaria · 85%
Series resultBulgaria 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2