ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Bushido Wildcats#82 in the world · win 2:1series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Fire Flux#103 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Bushido Wildcats pick
71%50%
Bushido Wildcats · 13 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +21%Fire Flux · 6 maps
AnubisFire Flux pick
50%70%
Bushido Wildcats · 4 mapsedge Fire Flux +20%Fire Flux · 6 maps
Miragepossible decider
60%50%
Bushido Wildcats · 6 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +10%Fire Flux · 4 maps
NukeBushido Wildcats ban
27%60%
Bushido Wildcats · 7 mapsedge Fire Flux +33%Fire Flux · 1 map
AncientBushido Wildcats ban
40%57%
Bushido Wildcats · 1 mapedge Fire Flux +17%Fire Flux · 3 maps
InfernoFire Flux ban
50%50%
Bushido Wildcats · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Fire Flux · 0 maps
OverpassFire Flux ban
63%50%
Bushido Wildcats · 4 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +13%Fire Flux · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBushido Wildcats remove Ancient
2. BanFire Flux remove Overpass
3. PickBushido Wildcats take Dust2
4. PickFire Flux take Anubis
5. BanFire Flux remove Inferno
6. BanBushido Wildcats remove Nuke
DeciderMirage (60% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed13:6
Bushido Wildcats 47%Fire Flux 53%
The model gave 53% on Fire Flux — the map was taken by Bushido Wildcats.
Nukeprediction correct11:13
Bushido Wildcats 22%Fire Flux 78%
The model gave 78% on Fire Flux — the map was taken by Fire Flux.
Dust2prediction correct13:8
Bushido Wildcats 71%Fire Flux 29%
The model gave 71% on Bushido Wildcats — the map was taken by Bushido Wildcats.
Model check result
Model favoriteFire Flux · 54%
Series resultBushido Wildcats 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3