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Exort Fiesta Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Bushido Wildcats#82 in the world · win 2:0
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Honvéd#144 in the world · loss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Bushido Wildcats pick
70%56%
Bushido Wildcats · 26 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +14%Honvéd · 30 maps
MirageHonvéd pick
62%53%
Bushido Wildcats · 17 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +9%Honvéd · 26 maps
NukeBushido Wildcats ban
48%56%
Bushido Wildcats · 17 mapsedge Honvéd +8%Honvéd · 5 maps
AncientBushido Wildcats ban
40%47%
Bushido Wildcats · 1 mapedge Honvéd +7%Honvéd · 15 maps
Infernopossible decider
55%33%
Bushido Wildcats · 7 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +22%Honvéd · 8 maps
CacheHonvéd ban
50%45%
Bushido Wildcats · 6 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +5%Honvéd · 7 maps
AnubisHonvéd ban
64%44%
Bushido Wildcats · 7 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +20%Honvéd · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBushido Wildcats remove Ancient
2. BanHonvéd remove Anubis
3. PickBushido Wildcats take Dust2
4. PickHonvéd take Mirage
5. BanHonvéd remove Cache
6. BanBushido Wildcats remove Nuke
DeciderInferno (55% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:6
Bushido Wildcats 68%Honvéd 32%
The model gave 68% on Bushido Wildcats — the map was taken by Bushido Wildcats.
Cacheprediction correct13:10
Bushido Wildcats 52%Honvéd 48%
The model gave 52% on Bushido Wildcats — the map was taken by Bushido Wildcats.
Model check result
Model favoriteBushido Wildcats · 57%
Series resultBushido Wildcats 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2