ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Bushido Wildcats#82 in the world · win 2:1series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:1
MOUZ NXT#146 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Bushido Wildcats pick
64%55%
Bushido Wildcats · 10 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +9%MOUZ NXT · 7 maps
MirageMOUZ NXT pick
56%33%
Bushido Wildcats · 5 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +23%MOUZ NXT · 8 maps
NukeBushido Wildcats ban
25%43%
Bushido Wildcats · 4 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +18%MOUZ NXT · 3 maps
OverpassMOUZ NXT ban
63%29%
Bushido Wildcats · 4 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +34%MOUZ NXT · 3 maps
AncientBushido Wildcats ban
50%57%
Bushido Wildcats · 0 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +7%MOUZ NXT · 3 maps
AnubisMOUZ NXT ban
43%50%
Bushido Wildcats · 3 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +7%MOUZ NXT · 0 maps
Defaultpossible decider
67%60%
Bushido Wildcats · 2 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +7%MOUZ NXT · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBushido Wildcats remove Ancient
2. BanMOUZ NXT remove Overpass
3. PickBushido Wildcats take Dust2
4. PickMOUZ NXT take Mirage
5. BanMOUZ NXT remove Anubis
6. BanBushido Wildcats remove Nuke
DeciderDefault (67% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:3
Bushido Wildcats 63%MOUZ NXT 37%
The model gave 63% on Bushido Wildcats — the map was taken by Bushido Wildcats.
Nukeprediction correct11:13
Bushido Wildcats 28%MOUZ NXT 72%
The model gave 72% on MOUZ NXT — the map was taken by MOUZ NXT.
Mirageprediction correct13:5
Bushido Wildcats 71%MOUZ NXT 29%
The model gave 71% on Bushido Wildcats — the map was taken by Bushido Wildcats.
Model check result
Model favoriteBushido Wildcats · 60%
Series resultBushido Wildcats 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3