ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Bushido Wildcats#82 in the world · win 2:0series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Noir Verse#124 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Bushido Wildcats pick
72%44%
Bushido Wildcats · 14 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +28%Noir Verse · 5 maps
NukeNoir Verse pick
25%55%
Bushido Wildcats · 8 mapsedge Noir Verse +30%Noir Verse · 7 maps
Miragepossible decider
60%56%
Bushido Wildcats · 6 mapsnearly even +4%Noir Verse · 5 maps
AnubisBushido Wildcats ban
50%50%
Bushido Wildcats · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Noir Verse · 4 maps
AncientBushido Wildcats ban
40%40%
Bushido Wildcats · 1 mapnearly even +0%Noir Verse · 6 maps
InfernoNoir Verse ban
50%40%
Bushido Wildcats · 4 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +10%Noir Verse · 1 map
OverpassNoir Verse ban
63%40%
Bushido Wildcats · 4 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +23%Noir Verse · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBushido Wildcats remove Ancient
2. BanNoir Verse remove Inferno
3. PickBushido Wildcats take Dust2
4. PickNoir Verse take Nuke
5. BanNoir Verse remove Overpass
6. BanBushido Wildcats remove Anubis
DeciderMirage (60% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:9
Bushido Wildcats 20%Noir Verse 80%
The model gave 80% on Noir Verse — the map was taken by Bushido Wildcats.
Dust2prediction correct13:9
Bushido Wildcats 79%Noir Verse 21%
The model gave 79% on Bushido Wildcats — the map was taken by Bushido Wildcats.
Model check result
Model favoriteNoir Verse · 55%
Series resultBushido Wildcats 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2