NODWIN Clutch Series 11 · BO3
result vs prediction
Butterfly#127 in the world · win 2:1series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Black Phoenix#57 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Black Phoenix pick
67%68%
Butterfly · 8 mapsnearly even -1%Black Phoenix · 15 maps
MirageBlack Phoenix ban
67%50%
Butterfly · 8 mapsedge Butterfly +17%Black Phoenix · 10 maps
NukeButterfly pick
62%45%
Butterfly · 9 mapsedge Butterfly +17%Black Phoenix · 7 maps
InfernoButterfly ban
20%60%
Butterfly · 6 mapsedge Black Phoenix +40%Black Phoenix · 6 maps
AncientBlack Phoenix ban
75%50%
Butterfly · 8 mapsedge Butterfly +25%Black Phoenix · 0 maps
Cachepossible decider
67%60%
Butterfly · 2 mapsedge Butterfly +7%Black Phoenix · 6 maps
AnubisButterfly ban
40%22%
Butterfly · 1 mapedge Butterfly +18%Black Phoenix · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanButterfly remove Anubis
2. BanBlack Phoenix remove Ancient
3. PickButterfly take Nuke
4. PickBlack Phoenix take Dust2
5. BanBlack Phoenix remove Mirage
6. BanButterfly remove Inferno
DeciderCache (67% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct10:13
Butterfly 45%Black Phoenix 55%
The model gave 55% on Black Phoenix — the map was taken by Black Phoenix.
Nukeprediction correct13:7
Butterfly 68%Black Phoenix 32%
The model gave 68% on Butterfly — the map was taken by Butterfly.
Infernoprediction missed13:9
Butterfly 14%Black Phoenix 86%
The model gave 86% on Black Phoenix — the map was taken by Butterfly.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlack Phoenix · 52%
Series resultButterfly 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3