CCT 2026 Europe Series 10 · BO3
result vs prediction
Butterfly#127 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ex-RUSTEC pick
67%55%
Butterfly · 14 mapsedge Butterfly +12%ex-RUSTEC · 43 maps
NukeButterfly pick
57%53%
Butterfly · 17 mapsnearly even +4%ex-RUSTEC · 30 maps
Mirageex-RUSTEC ban
69%48%
Butterfly · 12 mapsedge Butterfly +21%ex-RUSTEC · 19 maps
InfernoButterfly ban
22%47%
Butterfly · 14 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +25%ex-RUSTEC · 15 maps
AnubisButterfly ban
40%64%
Butterfly · 1 mapedge ex-RUSTEC +24%ex-RUSTEC · 24 maps
Ancientex-RUSTEC ban
59%67%
Butterfly · 13 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +8%ex-RUSTEC · 5 maps
Cachepossible decider
63%47%
Butterfly · 4 mapsedge Butterfly +16%ex-RUSTEC · 13 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanButterfly remove Anubis
2. Banex-RUSTEC remove Ancient
3. PickButterfly take Nuke
4. Pickex-RUSTEC take Dust2
5. Banex-RUSTEC remove Mirage
6. BanButterfly remove Inferno
DeciderCache (63% / 47%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:9
Butterfly 59%ex-RUSTEC 41%
The model gave 59% on Butterfly — the map was taken by Butterfly.
Infernoprediction correct10:13
Butterfly 26%ex-RUSTEC 74%
The model gave 74% on ex-RUSTEC — the map was taken by ex-RUSTEC.
Mirageprediction missed9:13
Butterfly 71%ex-RUSTEC 29%
The model gave 71% on Butterfly — the map was taken by ex-RUSTEC.
Model check result
Model favoriteex-RUSTEC · 51%
Series resultex-RUSTEC 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3