CCT 2026 Europe Series 12 · BO3
result vs prediction
Butterfly#132 in the world · win 2:1series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:1
FORZE Reload#94 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
59%67%
Butterfly · 18 mapsedge FORZE Reload +8%FORZE Reload · 20 maps
NukeButterfly pick
54%63%
Butterfly · 20 mapsedge FORZE Reload +9%FORZE Reload · 12 maps
AncientButterfly ban
50%64%
Butterfly · 12 mapsedge FORZE Reload +14%FORZE Reload · 10 maps
MirageFORZE Reload ban
58%59%
Butterfly · 8 mapsnearly even -1%FORZE Reload · 13 maps
CacheFORZE Reload pick
57%74%
Butterfly · 3 mapsedge FORZE Reload +17%FORZE Reload · 15 maps
InfernoFORZE Reload ban
20%50%
Butterfly · 16 mapsedge FORZE Reload +30%FORZE Reload · 0 maps
AnubisButterfly ban
50%44%
Butterfly · 0 mapsedge Butterfly +6%FORZE Reload · 12 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanButterfly remove Anubis
2. BanFORZE Reload remove Inferno
3. PickButterfly take Nuke
4. PickFORZE Reload take Cache
5. BanFORZE Reload remove Mirage
6. BanButterfly remove Ancient
DeciderDust2 (59% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:11
Butterfly 44%FORZE Reload 56%
The model gave 56% on FORZE Reload — the map was taken by Butterfly.
Ancientprediction correct14:16
Butterfly 33%FORZE Reload 67%
The model gave 67% on FORZE Reload — the map was taken by FORZE Reload.
Dust2prediction missed13:7
Butterfly 42%FORZE Reload 58%
The model gave 58% on FORZE Reload — the map was taken by Butterfly.
Model check result
Model favoriteFORZE Reload · 58%
Series resultButterfly 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3