CCT 2026 Europe Series 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Butterfly#127 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 1:2
G2 Ares#103 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragepossible decider
60%60%
Butterfly · 1 mapnearly even +0%G2 Ares · 16 maps
InfernoG2 Ares pick
50%56%
Butterfly · 0 mapsedge G2 Ares +6%G2 Ares · 14 maps
Dust2Butterfly ban
50%56%
Butterfly · 0 mapsedge G2 Ares +6%G2 Ares · 12 maps
AncientG2 Ares ban
60%50%
Butterfly · 1 mapedge Butterfly +10%G2 Ares · 10 maps
OverpassButterfly pick
50%43%
Butterfly · 0 mapsedge Butterfly +7%G2 Ares · 10 maps
AnubisButterfly ban
50%57%
Butterfly · 0 mapsedge G2 Ares +7%G2 Ares · 3 maps
CacheG2 Ares ban
60%40%
Butterfly · 1 mapedge Butterfly +20%G2 Ares · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanButterfly remove Anubis
2. BanG2 Ares remove Ancient
3. PickButterfly take Overpass
4. PickG2 Ares take Inferno
5. BanG2 Ares remove Cache
6. BanButterfly remove Dust2
DeciderMirage (60% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:4
Butterfly 63%G2 Ares 37%
The model gave 63% on Butterfly — the map was taken by Butterfly.
Mirageprediction correct12:16
Butterfly 47%G2 Ares 53%
The model gave 53% on G2 Ares — the map was taken by G2 Ares.
Infernoprediction correct14:16
Butterfly 44%G2 Ares 56%
The model gave 56% on G2 Ares — the map was taken by G2 Ares.
Model check result
Model favoriteG2 Ares · 61%
Series resultG2 Ares 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3