NODWIN Clutch Series 10 · BO3
result vs prediction
Butterfly#127 in the world · win 2:0series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageJust Players pick
50%54%
Butterfly · 0 mapsnearly even -4%Just Players · 24 maps
AncientButterfly pick
60%55%
Butterfly · 1 mapedge Butterfly +5%Just Players · 18 maps
Dust2possible decider
50%33%
Butterfly · 0 mapsedge Butterfly +17%Just Players · 17 maps
NukeJust Players ban
50%50%
Butterfly · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Just Players · 10 maps
OverpassButterfly ban
50%60%
Butterfly · 0 mapsedge Just Players +10%Just Players · 6 maps
CacheJust Players ban
60%29%
Butterfly · 1 mapedge Butterfly +31%Just Players · 3 maps
DefaultButterfly ban
50%50%
Butterfly · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Just Players · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanButterfly remove Overpass
2. BanJust Players remove Cache
3. PickButterfly take Ancient
4. PickJust Players take Mirage
5. BanJust Players remove Nuke
6. BanButterfly remove Default
DeciderDust2 (50% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:2
Butterfly 43%Just Players 57%
The model gave 57% on Just Players — the map was taken by Butterfly.
Nukeprediction correct13:6
Butterfly 53%Just Players 47%
The model gave 53% on Butterfly — the map was taken by Butterfly.
Model check result
Model favoriteJust Players · 62%
Series resultButterfly 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2