CCT 2026 Europe Series 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Butterfly#127 in the world · win 2:0series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageJust Players pick
63%53%
Butterfly · 4 mapsedge Butterfly +10%Just Players · 26 maps
AncientButterfly pick
71%57%
Butterfly · 3 mapsedge Butterfly +14%Just Players · 19 maps
Dust2Just Players ban
60%38%
Butterfly · 1 mapedge Butterfly +22%Just Players · 20 maps
NukeJust Players ban
57%47%
Butterfly · 3 mapsedge Butterfly +10%Just Players · 11 maps
AnubisButterfly ban
40%75%
Butterfly · 1 mapedge Just Players +35%Just Players · 4 maps
DefaultButterfly ban
50%56%
Butterfly · 0 mapsedge Just Players +6%Just Players · 5 maps
Overpasspossible decider
50%56%
Butterfly · 0 mapsedge Just Players +6%Just Players · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanButterfly remove Anubis
2. BanJust Players remove Nuke
3. PickButterfly take Ancient
4. PickJust Players take Mirage
5. BanJust Players remove Dust2
6. BanButterfly remove Default
DeciderOverpass (50% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:4
Butterfly 56%Just Players 44%
The model gave 56% on Butterfly — the map was taken by Butterfly.
Nukeprediction correct13:11
Butterfly 63%Just Players 37%
The model gave 63% on Butterfly — the map was taken by Butterfly.
Model check result
Model favoriteButterfly · 58%
Series resultButterfly 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2