CCT 2026 Europe Series 10 · BO3
result vs prediction
Butterfly#127 in the world · win 2:0series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
megoshort#179 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragepossible decider
69%44%
Butterfly · 12 mapsedge Butterfly +25%megoshort · 14 maps
AncientButterfly pick
59%56%
Butterfly · 13 mapsnearly even +3%megoshort · 12 maps
Dust2megoshort ban
65%54%
Butterfly · 13 mapsedge Butterfly +11%megoshort · 9 maps
InfernoButterfly ban
18%36%
Butterfly · 13 mapsedge megoshort +18%megoshort · 7 maps
Nukemegoshort ban
57%50%
Butterfly · 17 mapsedge Butterfly +7%megoshort · 0 maps
DefaultButterfly ban
56%55%
Butterfly · 5 mapsnearly even +1%megoshort · 7 maps
Cachemegoshort pick
63%55%
Butterfly · 4 mapsedge Butterfly +8%megoshort · 7 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanButterfly remove Inferno
2. Banmegoshort remove Nuke
3. PickButterfly take Ancient
4. Pickmegoshort take Cache
5. Banmegoshort remove Dust2
6. BanButterfly remove Default
DeciderMirage (69% / 44%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:11
Butterfly 25%megoshort 75%
The model gave 75% on megoshort — the map was taken by Butterfly.
Dust2prediction correct13:7
Butterfly 64%megoshort 36%
The model gave 64% on Butterfly — the map was taken by Butterfly.
Model check result
Model favoriteButterfly · 64%
Series resultButterfly 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2