CCT 2026 Europe Series 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Butterfly#127 in the world · win 2:1series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:1
QUAZAR#94 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeButterfly pick
59%63%
Butterfly · 13 mapsnearly even -4%QUAZAR · 12 maps
Dust2QUAZAR ban
60%47%
Butterfly · 11 mapsedge Butterfly +13%QUAZAR · 11 maps
Miragepossible decider
69%65%
Butterfly · 9 mapsnearly even +4%QUAZAR · 13 maps
InfernoButterfly ban
20%55%
Butterfly · 11 mapsedge QUAZAR +35%QUAZAR · 7 maps
CacheQUAZAR pick
71%61%
Butterfly · 3 mapsedge Butterfly +10%QUAZAR · 14 maps
AncientQUAZAR ban
59%50%
Butterfly · 13 mapsedge Butterfly +9%QUAZAR · 0 maps
AnubisButterfly ban
40%50%
Butterfly · 1 mapedge QUAZAR +10%QUAZAR · 10 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanButterfly remove Anubis
2. BanQUAZAR remove Ancient
3. PickButterfly take Nuke
4. PickQUAZAR take Cache
5. BanQUAZAR remove Dust2
6. BanButterfly remove Inferno
DeciderMirage (69% / 65%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed10:13
Butterfly 59%QUAZAR 41%
The model gave 59% on Butterfly — the map was taken by QUAZAR.
Dust2prediction correct13:6
Butterfly 66%QUAZAR 34%
The model gave 66% on Butterfly — the map was taken by Butterfly.
Nukeprediction missed13:9
Butterfly 46%QUAZAR 54%
The model gave 54% on QUAZAR — the map was taken by Butterfly.
Model check result
Model favoriteButterfly · 51%
Series resultButterfly 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3