CCT 2026 Europe Series 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Butterfly#127 in the world · win 2:1series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:1
SAW Youngsters#143 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoSAW Youngsters pick
40%71%
Butterfly · 1 mapedge SAW Youngsters +31%SAW Youngsters · 10 maps
Miragepossible decider
50%45%
Butterfly · 2 mapsedge Butterfly +5%SAW Youngsters · 7 maps
AncientButterfly pick
67%50%
Butterfly · 2 mapsedge Butterfly +17%SAW Youngsters · 6 maps
Dust2Butterfly ban
50%63%
Butterfly · 0 mapsedge SAW Youngsters +13%SAW Youngsters · 4 maps
NukeSAW Youngsters ban
60%57%
Butterfly · 1 mapnearly even +3%SAW Youngsters · 3 maps
AnubisButterfly ban
50%50%
Butterfly · 0 mapsnearly even +0%SAW Youngsters · 2 maps
CacheSAW Youngsters ban
60%50%
Butterfly · 1 mapedge Butterfly +10%SAW Youngsters · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanButterfly remove Anubis
2. BanSAW Youngsters remove Cache
3. PickButterfly take Ancient
4. PickSAW Youngsters take Inferno
5. BanSAW Youngsters remove Nuke
6. BanButterfly remove Dust2
DeciderMirage (50% / 45%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct13:10
Butterfly 56%SAW Youngsters 44%
The model gave 56% on Butterfly — the map was taken by Butterfly.
Infernoprediction correct13:16
Butterfly 19%SAW Youngsters 81%
The model gave 81% on SAW Youngsters — the map was taken by SAW Youngsters.
Dust2prediction missed13:5
Butterfly 38%SAW Youngsters 62%
The model gave 63% on SAW Youngsters — the map was taken by Butterfly.
Model check result
Model favoriteSAW Youngsters · 57%
Series resultButterfly 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3