ESEA Season 57 North America Finals · BO3
result vs prediction
Chicken Coop#151 in the world · win 2:0series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Infernodice ban
67%50%
Chicken Coop · 8 mapsedge Chicken Coop +17%dice · 0 maps
OverpassChicken Coop pick
64%50%
Chicken Coop · 7 mapsedge Chicken Coop +14%dice · 0 maps
Dust2dice pick
44%50%
Chicken Coop · 5 mapsedge dice +6%dice · 0 maps
NukeChicken Coop ban
44%50%
Chicken Coop · 5 mapsedge dice +6%dice · 0 maps
Ancientdice ban
63%50%
Chicken Coop · 4 mapsedge Chicken Coop +13%dice · 0 maps
Defaultpossible decider
57%50%
Chicken Coop · 3 mapsedge Chicken Coop +7%dice · 0 maps
AnubisChicken Coop ban
40%50%
Chicken Coop · 1 mapedge dice +10%dice · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanChicken Coop remove Anubis
2. Bandice remove Inferno
3. PickChicken Coop take Overpass
4. Pickdice take Dust2
5. Bandice remove Ancient
6. BanChicken Coop remove Nuke
DeciderDefault (57% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:2
Chicken Coop 60%dice 40%
The model gave 60% on Chicken Coop — the map was taken by Chicken Coop.
Nukeprediction missed13:4
Chicken Coop 47%dice 53%
The model gave 53% on dice — the map was taken by Chicken Coop.
Model check result
Model favoriteChicken Coop · 77%
Series resultChicken Coop 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2