ESL Challenger League Season 51 North America Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Chicken Coop#183 in the world · win 1:0series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ex-Marsborne pick
43%50%
Chicken Coop · 3 mapsedge ex-Marsborne +7%ex-Marsborne · 0 maps
NukeChicken Coop pick
43%50%
Chicken Coop · 3 mapsedge ex-Marsborne +7%ex-Marsborne · 0 maps
Defaultex-Marsborne ban
40%40%
Chicken Coop · 1 mapnearly even +0%ex-Marsborne · 1 map
Infernoex-Marsborne ban
67%50%
Chicken Coop · 2 mapsedge Chicken Coop +17%ex-Marsborne · 0 maps
OverpassChicken Coop ban
50%50%
Chicken Coop · 2 mapsnearly even +0%ex-Marsborne · 0 maps
AncientChicken Coop ban
60%50%
Chicken Coop · 1 mapedge Chicken Coop +10%ex-Marsborne · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanChicken Coop remove Overpass
2. Banex-Marsborne remove Inferno
3. PickChicken Coop take Nuke
4. Pickex-Marsborne take Dust2
5. Banex-Marsborne remove Default
6. BanChicken Coop remove Ancient
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
Chicken Coop 50%ex-Marsborne 50%
The model gave 50% on Chicken Coop — the map was taken by Chicken Coop.
Model check result
Model favoriteChicken Coop · 68%
Series resultChicken Coop 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1