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FRAG TAP Reloaded 2026 · BO5
result vs prediction
Chicken Coop#151 in the world · win 3:2
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 3:2
Marsborne#82 in the world · loss 2:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoChicken Coop pick
67%67%
Chicken Coop · 5 mapsnearly even +0%Marsborne · 5 maps
AncientMarsborne pick
57%63%
Chicken Coop · 3 mapsedge Marsborne +6%Marsborne · 4 maps
OverpassChicken Coop pick
67%50%
Chicken Coop · 5 mapsedge Chicken Coop +17%Marsborne · 2 maps
Dust2possible decider
38%40%
Chicken Coop · 4 mapsnearly even -2%Marsborne · 1 map
MirageChicken Coop ban
50%67%
Chicken Coop · 0 mapsedge Marsborne +17%Marsborne · 5 maps
NukeMarsborne ban
44%50%
Chicken Coop · 5 mapsedge Marsborne +6%Marsborne · 0 maps
AnubisMarsborne pick
50%57%
Chicken Coop · 0 mapsedge Marsborne +7%Marsborne · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanChicken Coop remove Mirage
2. BanMarsborne remove Nuke
3. PickChicken Coop take Overpass
4. PickMarsborne take Ancient
5. PickChicken Coop take Inferno
6. PickMarsborne take Anubis
DeciderDust2 (38% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
Chicken Coop 50%Marsborne 50%
The model gave 50% on Chicken Coop — the map was taken by Chicken Coop.
Infernoprediction correct9:13
Chicken Coop 47%Marsborne 53%
The model gave 53% on Marsborne — the map was taken by Marsborne.
Overpassprediction missed11:13
Chicken Coop 69%Marsborne 31%
The model gave 69% on Chicken Coop — the map was taken by Marsborne.
Mirageprediction missed13:3
Chicken Coop 31%Marsborne 69%
The model gave 69% on Marsborne — the map was taken by Chicken Coop.
Ancientprediction missed13:11
Chicken Coop 47%Marsborne 53%
The model gave 53% on Marsborne — the map was taken by Chicken Coop.
Model check result
Model favoriteChicken Coop · 51%
Series resultChicken Coop 3:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 5