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ESL Challenger League Season 51 North America Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Chicken Coop#183 in the world · loss 1:2
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:2
regain#162 in the world · win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientregain pick
60%57%
Chicken Coop · 1 mapnearly even +3%regain · 3 maps
Dust2Chicken Coop ban
43%60%
Chicken Coop · 3 mapsedge regain +17%regain · 1 map
InfernoChicken Coop pick
67%67%
Chicken Coop · 2 mapsnearly even +0%regain · 2 maps
Nukeregain ban
43%50%
Chicken Coop · 3 mapsedge regain +7%regain · 0 maps
Defaultpossible decider
50%50%
Chicken Coop · 2 mapsnearly even +0%regain · 0 maps
Overpassregain ban
50%50%
Chicken Coop · 2 mapsnearly even +0%regain · 0 maps
MirageChicken Coop ban
50%40%
Chicken Coop · 0 mapsedge Chicken Coop +10%regain · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanChicken Coop remove Mirage
2. Banregain remove Nuke
3. PickChicken Coop take Inferno
4. Pickregain take Ancient
5. Banregain remove Overpass
6. BanChicken Coop remove Dust2
DeciderDefault (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct10:13
Chicken Coop 47%regain 53%
The model gave 53% on regain — the map was taken by regain.
Overpassprediction correct13:7
Chicken Coop 53%regain 47%
The model gave 53% on Chicken Coop — the map was taken by Chicken Coop.
Ancientprediction missed3:13
Chicken Coop 53%regain 47%
The model gave 53% on Chicken Coop — the map was taken by regain.
Model check result
Model favoriteChicken Coop · 53%
Series resultregain 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3