ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Chinggis Warriors#116 in the world · win 2:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
XDM#222 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoChinggis Warriors pick
50%60%
Chinggis Warriors · 4 mapsedge XDM +10%XDM · 1 map
Dust2Chinggis Warriors ban
38%50%
Chinggis Warriors · 4 mapsedge XDM +12%XDM · 0 maps
NukeXDM ban
38%50%
Chinggis Warriors · 4 mapsedge XDM +12%XDM · 0 maps
AncientChinggis Warriors ban
40%60%
Chinggis Warriors · 1 mapedge XDM +20%XDM · 1 map
MirageXDM pick
40%40%
Chinggis Warriors · 1 mapnearly even +0%XDM · 1 map
CacheXDM ban
40%50%
Chinggis Warriors · 1 mapedge XDM +10%XDM · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanChinggis Warriors remove Ancient
2. BanXDM remove Cache
3. PickChinggis Warriors take Inferno
4. PickXDM take Mirage
5. BanXDM remove Nuke
6. BanChinggis Warriors remove Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:8
Chinggis Warriors 47%XDM 53%
The model gave 53% on XDM — the map was taken by Chinggis Warriors.
Nukeprediction missed13:10
Chinggis Warriors 40%XDM 60%
The model gave 60% on XDM — the map was taken by Chinggis Warriors.
Model check result
Model favoriteChinggis Warriors · 54%
Series resultChinggis Warriors 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2