Elisa Open Finland Season 13 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragecirahvi ban
33%50%
cirahvi · 2 mapsedge boyband +17%boyband · 2 maps
Overpassboyband pick
40%50%
cirahvi · 1 mapedge boyband +10%boyband · 2 maps
Infernoboyband ban
60%50%
cirahvi · 1 mapedge cirahvi +10%boyband · 0 maps
Nukecirahvi pick
60%50%
cirahvi · 1 mapedge cirahvi +10%boyband · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Bancirahvi remove Mirage
2. Banboyband remove Inferno
3. Pickcirahvi take Nuke
4. Pickboyband take Overpass
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct13:10
cirahvi 63%boyband 37%
The model gave 63% on cirahvi — the map was taken by cirahvi.
Overpassprediction correct12:16
cirahvi 37%boyband 63%
The model gave 63% on boyband — the map was taken by boyband.
Infernoprediction correct13:3
cirahvi 60%boyband 40%
The model gave 60% on cirahvi — the map was taken by cirahvi.
Model check result
Model favoriteboyband · 56%
Series resultcirahvi 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3