Circuit X Curitiba Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
CLANSBRwin 2:1series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientElementals ban
50%40%
CLANSBR · 0 mapsedge CLANSBR +10%Elementals · 1 map
CacheCLANSBR ban
50%40%
CLANSBR · 0 mapsedge CLANSBR +10%Elementals · 1 map
InfernoCLANSBR pick
40%50%
CLANSBR · 1 mapedge Elementals +10%Elementals · 0 maps
MirageElementals pick
40%50%
CLANSBR · 1 mapedge Elementals +10%Elementals · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanCLANSBR remove Cache
2. BanElementals remove Ancient
3. PickCLANSBR take Inferno
4. PickElementals take Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed6:13
CLANSBR 57%Elementals 43%
The model gave 57% on CLANSBR — the map was taken by Elementals.
Dust2prediction correct13:7
CLANSBR 53%Elementals 47%
The model gave 53% on CLANSBR — the map was taken by CLANSBR.
Cacheprediction correct13:6
CLANSBR 60%Elementals 40%
The model gave 60% on CLANSBR — the map was taken by CLANSBR.
Model check result
Model favoriteCLANSBR · 50%
Series resultCLANSBR 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3