NSTLGA League Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Club 333#229 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Festina Lente#193 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Club 333 pick
50%50%
Club 333 · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Festina Lente · 0 maps
InfernoClub 333 ban
40%50%
Club 333 · 1 mapedge Festina Lente +10%Festina Lente · 0 maps
MirageFestina Lente ban
60%50%
Club 333 · 1 mapedge Club 333 +10%Festina Lente · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanClub 333 remove Inferno
2. BanFestina Lente remove Mirage
3. PickClub 333 take Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct11:13
Club 333 47%Festina Lente 53%
The model gave 53% on Festina Lente — the map was taken by Festina Lente.
Dust2prediction missed14:16
Club 333 53%Festina Lente 47%
The model gave 53% on Club 333 — the map was taken by Festina Lente.
Model check result
Model favoriteClub 333 · 56%
Series resultFestina Lente 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2