ESEA Season 57 North America Finals · BO3
result vs prediction
Club 333#229 in the world · win 2:1series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Club 333 ban
43%50%
Club 333 · 3 mapsedge Playing for fun +7%Playing for fun · 0 maps
NukePlaying for fun pick
43%50%
Club 333 · 3 mapsedge Playing for fun +7%Playing for fun · 0 maps
InfernoPlaying for fun ban
50%50%
Club 333 · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Playing for fun · 0 maps
MirageClub 333 pick
50%50%
Club 333 · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Playing for fun · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanClub 333 remove Dust2
2. BanPlaying for fun remove Inferno
3. PickClub 333 take Mirage
4. PickPlaying for fun take Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:5
Club 333 40%Playing for fun 60%
The model gave 60% on Playing for fun — the map was taken by Club 333.
Infernoprediction missed4:13
Club 333 53%Playing for fun 47%
The model gave 53% on Club 333 — the map was taken by Playing for fun.
Nukeprediction missed13:3
Club 333 43%Playing for fun 57%
The model gave 57% on Playing for fun — the map was taken by Club 333.
Model check result
Model favoriteClub 333 · 53%
Series resultClub 333 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 3